020: George Magnus on The Age of Ageing, China and the EU

George Magnus is an independent economist, consultant and commentator. He has a distinguished career that started with some teaching assignments but was spent mostly in the financial services industry.

Before going solo in 2012, George was the Senior Economic Adviser at UBS Investment Bank having previously been the Chief Economist for 10 years. In almost 30 years of working experience in the City, he has held senior positions at SG Warburg, Chase Manhattan Bank and Bank of America. He is a well-known and highly regarded economist in the financial community and has won many accolades in professional surveys as one of the top global economists.

George is well known for his commentaries and interviews in newspapers, journals, TV and radio, most notably for the Financial Times, CNBC and Bloomberg.

George, gained widespread acclaim for declaring in early 2007 that we would face a Minsky Moment – or systemic banking crisis – and a decade of slow growth, has extensive experience of writing on, explaining and speaking about the global economy.

His first book, The Age of Ageing: How Demographics Are Changing The Global Economy And Our World was published in 2008. His latest book, Uprising: Will Emerging Markets Shape or Shake the Global Economy was published at the end of 2010, and assesses, in particular, whether China is set to dominate the world system.

Economic Themes:

In this interview, George mentions and discusses: bubbles, crashes, business cycles, demography, pensions, labor, emerging markets, life expectancy, debt-to-GDP, monetary union and fiscal union.

Economists:

In this interview, George mentions: Hyman Minsky, Thomas Malthus, J.K. Galbraith, James Galbraith (son), Thomas Picketty and Michael Pettis.

Influencer:

J.K. Galbraith

In this episode, you will learn: 

• about bubbles and why we never learn from them.

• how demographics are changing the world economy through declining fertility and rising life expectancy.

• about the need for a policy agenda to cope with an ageing society.

• why age-related commitments and promises such as pensions and health care schemes are unaffordable.

• why there is a pension crisis to come and how it mimics a Ponzi-scheme.

• about the fastest ageing country – China – and what problems will exist in the future.

• if economies can experience positive growth rates if population declines by relying on robotics.

• how the second machine age may bring problems to those whose jobs have been automated.

• if there will be a strong Luddite presence in the future given the pace of technological change.

• about the failure of the BRIC emerging countries to live up to their expectations.

• if China is all hype.

• what the real problem is in Europe in terms of its monetary union.

• why the EU should have started with a fiscal and political union first and then build a monetary union on top.

• about George Magnus’ band ‘Prisom’ and his love of Led Zeppelin and Pink Floyd.

Favorite Internet Resource:

• Michael Pettis: China Financial Markets 
• Margaret McMillan (Historian): Margaret McMillan 

Favorite Books:

• The Second Machine Age by Erik Brynjolfsson and Andrew McAfee
• A Short History of Financial Euphoria by J.K. Galbraith
• The Culture of Contentment by J.K. Galbraith
• The Age of Aging: How Demographics are Changing the Global Economy and Our World by George Magnus
• Uprising: Will Emerging Markets Shape or Shake the World Economy by George Magnus
• The Deluge: The Great War, America and the Remaking of the Global Order, 1916-1931 by Adam Tooz

Where To Find George Magnus:

• Website: www.georgemagnus.com
• Twitter: @georgemagnus1

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